The nominees for the 90th Academy Awards were
announced recently, and since that means we’ll be going through the annual
cycle of bellyaching over how the Oscars don’t matter while having intense
online debates about whether or not the Oscars matter, I thought I’d throw my
two cents into who will or probably should win. On one hand, I think it’s great
that there’s more diversity on display this year, but I’m a bit more cynical about who
the awards will actually go to. This isn’t academy voting, just predictions
based on what I know about the Oscars’ taste and my own personal opinion, with
all my biases in tow. Also, there were some categories where I saw none of the
nominations (Best Foreign Film, Best Animated Short, Best Short, Best
Documentary, Best Documentary Short), so those will be skipped. Let’s start
with the big one:
Best Picture:
Call Me by Your Name
Darkest Hour
The Post
Who I think will win: This is a close call between Get Out, Lady Bird, The Shape of Water and Three Billboards, and while Three Billboards seems like the safest bet, I have a hunch that it'll go to Lady Bird. While I wasn’t nearly
as crazy for it as everyone else was, the praise for this film has been almost
universal, so it seems like a shoe-in for Best Picture. Plus, since the Best
Picture nominee has become a bit of a political game since the #OscarsSoWhite
debacle a few years ago, it would seem appropriate to follow up Moonlight taking home the gold with
passing it to an almost entirely female-centered project, especially now that we're in the midst of the #MeToo movement.
Who I want to win: I'd be happy with the prize either going to Get Out or The Shape of Water. Personally I liked The Shape of Water more, but the impact Get Out left on film and the populace at large is
significantly bigger.
Best Lead Actor:
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom
Thread
Daniel Kaluuya, Get
Out
Denzel Washington, Roman
J. Israel, Esq.
Gary Oldman, Darkest
Hour
Timothee Chalamet, Call
Me by Your Name
Who I think will win:
Gary Oldman. It’s a well-respected character actor donning a ton of make-up
and doing a spot-on impression of a significant historical figure during a
pivotal moment in World War II. This role was practically designed to win
Oscars.
Who I want to win: Daniel
Day-Lewis. While I personally would’ve been thrilled to give it to Hugh Jackman
for Logan (at least they didn’t nominate him for The Greatest Showman, thank God) or Andy Serkis for War for the Planet of the Apes, Day-Lewis is one of my
all-time favorite actors, and if this really is his last film, it would be nice to give him one last award
before he retires.
Best Lead Actress:
Frances McDormand, Three
Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie, I,
Tonya
Meryl Streep, The Post
Sally Hawkins, The
Shape of Water
Saoirse Ronan, Lady
Bird
Who I think will win:
When I thought about who would get nominated before the nominations were
announced, I managed to predict all five of the Best Actress contenders. That
said, I’d be satisfied if any of these ladies won, but if I had to bet on who’s
most likely to win, my money is on Sally Hawkins, if for no other reason than
she went through the whole movie silent and showed a wide range of emotion
without a single word (aside from that weird musical number). Or they could be
totally predictable and just give it to Meryl Streep again.
Who I want to win: Again,
I’d be happy with any of these, but aside from Sally Hawkins, I’d also really
like to see it go to Frances McDormand. Mildred is one of my favorite film
characters of the year, and that’s due in no small part to McDormand’s fiery
performance.
Best Supporting Actor:
Christopher Plummer, All
the Money in the World
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Sam Rockwell, Three
Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Willem Dafoe, The
Florida Project
Woody Harrelson, Three
Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Who I think will win:
Christopher Plummer, if for no other reason than his performance was a
last-minute addition. All the Money in
the World went through massive reshoots after Kevin Spacey’s sexual misconduct
accusations, and Ridley Scott wanted to scrub him from the film. (Even though
he dodged that bullet, he did hit another when he didn’t give Michelle Williams
her fair pay.) Admittedly I haven’t seen it for myself, but from what I’ve
heard, Plummer was one of the best things about it.
Who I want to win: This is the first time I’ve ever seen a movie
get nominated twice for the same category (I didn’t even know you could do
that), and while Woody Harrelson was also terrific, Sam Rockwell dumped an entire
box of mics on set and walked away without looking at the explosion. He’s one
of the most under-appreciated actors alive, and it’s high time he got his
proper dues. But if I had my way, Patrick Stewart would also get a nomination
for Logan.
Best Supporting Actress:
Alison Janney, I,
Tonya
Laurie Metcalf, Lady
Bird
Lesley Manville, Phantom
Thread
Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Octavia Spencer, The
Shape of Water
Who I think will win:
One of the many clichéd snipes from the peanut gallery is that the Oscars
love to give the Best Supporting Actress role to those who play horrible mothers.
(Just ask Monique.) While it’ll be a close call between Bad Mom Alison Janney
and Good but Frustrated Mom Laurie Metcalf, I think Janney will ultimately win
over.
Who I want to win: As
cliché as it may be, I really do hope it goes to Alison Janney. Like Sam
Rockwell, Janney is a severely underrated character actor who has yet to get
the recognition she deserves, and she does an incredible job of fully embodying
such a loathsome character.
Best Director:
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Greta Gerwig, Lady
Bird
Guillermo Del Toro, The
Shape of Water
Jordan Peele, Get Out
Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom
Thread
Who I think will win:
Another category where I’d be happy with any of these nominees winning, but
gun to my head, It's going to be a toss-up between Greta Gerwig, Jordan Peele and Guillermo Del Toro. Nolan doesn't make movies that make people cry, Phantom Thread was a little too weird, Gerwig and Peele are both actors-turned-directors which is something the Oscars always loves, and Del Toro would be a consolation win for being snubbed for so long.
Who I want to win: With
all due respect to Nolan, Del Toro and Anderson, I think Jordan Peele deserves
it this year. One of the most mind-blowing thing about Get Out was that it seemed like it was made by someone who spent at
least three films honing their craft, and yet it was made by a first-timer who
isn’t even a director by trade. Plus, it’s important for women and minorities
to get recognition for their work behind the camera.
Best Original Screenplay:
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards
Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Who I think will win:
This is a close call between Three
Billboards and Get Out. Three Billboards has some of the best
dialogue all year and pulls the hat trick of making you sympathize with an
ignorant racist, but on the other side of the coin, Get Out has the most original premise, and deals with racism in a
way that hasn’t really been dealt with before in a Hollywood movie.
Who I want to win: I’d
be happy with either of those two, but while Get Out winning would be on the right side of history, I personally
think that the script for Three
Billboards is better written, so I’m going with that.
Best Adapted Screenplay:
Call Me by Your Name
Mudbound
Who I think will win:
While it tends to get lost in the shuffle with other nominations, I could
see Call Me by Your Name taking home
the Best Adapted Screenplay award. But the Academy also really loves Aaron
Sorkin, so I can easily see it going to Molly’s
Game as well.
Who I want to win: I
wasn’t expecting Logan to get
nominated for anything at all, let alone best adapted screenplay, but it would
be a nice curveball see Logan win
just to stick it to the Academy for thumbing their noses at superhero movies
for all these years.
Best Cinematography:
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Mudbound
The Shape of Water
Who I think will win:
While I wasn’t that hot on Blade
Runner 2049 as everyone else, there’s no denying that it’s one of the most
visually stunning films in recent memory, and that’s due in no small part to
the cinematography by Roger Deakins.
Who I want to win:
Blade Runner 2049.
Best Costume Design:
Darkest Hour
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Victoria & Abdul
Who I think will win:
Most of the nominees in this category are a bit homogenous since they’re
mostly based on the same setting and time period (mid-century England), but the
dresses in Phantom Thread aren’t just
divine, they’re also integral to the plot and world of the film. Beauty and the Beast, while being a
pretty bad film, did have some rather impressive costumes as well, so I
wouldn’t be surprised if that won either.
Who I want to win: While
there’s only one truly inspiring costume in this movie, I’d love to see The Shape of Water take home the gold
just for the fish man suit.
Best Sound Mixing
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Who I think will win:
It’s a tough call between Blade
Runner 2049 and Dunkirk, with an
edge towards Dunkirk.
Who I want to win: If
you read my review of Baby Driver or my
essay on movie soundtracks, then you know that I am absolutely in love with
the way it merges action with music, and the sound mixing played a huge part in
its effectiveness.
Best Editing:
Baby Driver
Dunkirk
I, Tonya
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards
Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Who I think will win:
Baby Driver was only nominated
for three awards, all three of which were the real stars of the show, but it
has the highest chance of winning in the editing department for how precise and
synchronistic it is.
Who I want to win:
See above.
Best Sound Editing:
Baby Driver
Blade Runner
Dunkirk
Star Wars: The Last
Jedi
The Shape of Water
Who I think will win:
This and the best sound mixing category usually go hand in hand, so once
again, it’ll be a tie between Blade
Runner 2049 and Dunkirk.
Who I want to win:
Once again, Baby Driver is one of the
best accomplishments in merging sound and visuals in recent memory, so it would
be great for it to get the prize.
Best Visual Effects:
Blade Runner 2049
Kong: Skull Island
Star Wars: The Last
Jedi
War for the Planet of
the Apes
Who I think will win:
I’m a bit of a latecomer to the new Planet
of the Apes trilogy, having just watched all three for the first time a few
weeks ago, but the debate that always swirled around it was how it
revolutionized and pushed the boundaries of motion capture, and this would be
an opportune time for the Academy to honor that.
Who I want to win:
As much as I’m rooting for War for the
Planet of the Apes to win for all the reasons stated above, but I’d also be
happy with Blade Runner 2049 winning,
specifically for everything involving Joi. The
scene where she merges with Mackenzie Davis in particular is one of my
favorite individual scenes of the year.
Best Make-up and Hairstyling:
Darkest Hour
Victoria & Abdul
Wonder
Who I think will win:
Darkest Hour. Going back to what
I said in the Best Actor category, they transformed Gary Oldman into Winston
Churchill. It’s practically designed to win. But the Academy also goes nuts
when the make-up department transforms a conventionally attractive actor into
an ugly one, so it could swing in Wonder’s
favor.
Who I want to win:
Honestly, I’m not really impressed with any of these nominees. If it were up to
me, I give a nomination to Guardians of
the Galaxy Vol. 2. Michael Rooker, Zoe Saldana, Dave Bautista, Karen Gillan and Pom
Klementieff spent countless hours in those chairs, they could’ve thrown in some
trophies for that.
Best Original Song:
“The Mystery of Love” by Sufjan Stevens, Call Me by Your Name
“Remember Me” by Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez, Coco
“Stand Up for Something” by Common and Andra Day, Marshall
“Mighty River” by Mary J. Blige, Raphael Saadiq and Taura
Stinson, Mudbound
“This Is Me” by Benj Pasek and Justin Paul, The Greatest Showman
Who I think will win:
I called back in my review of Coco
that “Remember Me” has the Best Song category on lockdown, and I stand by that
statement. But even though I loathe giving the benefit of the doubt to the
fucking Greatest Showman, I do think
“This Is Me” has a slight chance of stealing it.
Who I want to win: “Remember
Me”.
Best Original Score:
Hans Zimmer, Dunkirk
Jonny Greenwood, Phantom
Thread
Alexandre Desplat, The
Shape of Water
John Williams, Star
Wars: The Last Jedi
Carter Burwell, Three
Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Who I think will win:
The Academy loves Hans Zimmer, and Dunkirk
is probably one of the best accomplishments in a while.
Who I want to win: Jonny
Greenwood. Maybe it’s because I saw Phantom
Thread a few days ago and it’s still fresh in my mind, but it’s hauntingly
beautiful and quite memorable.
Best Animated Feature:
The Breadwinner
The Boss Baby
Ferdinand
Loving Vincent
Who I think will win:
Coco. They call this the Pixar Award
for a reason. That, and the competition this year is pretty thin. (Loving Vincent I get, but... The Boss Baby? Really?)
Who I want to win: Coco. Perhaps it’s not fair for me to
judge since I only saw four animated films this year (one
of which is technically a 2016 release), but Coco is a touching,
wonderfully realized film even when put against the rest of the Pixar canon.
Best Production Design:
Beauty and the Beast
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Who I think will win:
The Shape of Water.
Who I want to win: Blade Runner 2049.
And that’s my take on the nominees for this year’s Oscars.
Tune in on March 4th to watch me eat my own words.
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